Saint John’s power use may double by 2050
Zero30 is guiding the way as Saint John moves toward a more electrified future
By Andrew Ahearn, March 20, 2025
New modelling by Saint John Energy reveals that our community could need twice as much electricity by 2050 – an insight that underscores the importance of our Zero30 initiative.
This finding emerges from extensive grid impact studies conducted as part of Zero30, an ambitious project aimed at creating a roadmap for how our utility might achieve net-zero emissions by 2030 and to help our customers get there too if they choose.
With our proactive approach, we're positioning Saint John Energy to meet this challenge
These forecasts are providing crucial insights that will help us prepare Saint John's electrical grid for a future with increasing adoption of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and other clean technologies.
Without this planning, such growth could strain our infrastructure in the decades ahead. But with our proactive approach, we're positioning Saint John Energy to meet this challenge while maintaining our renowned reliability and affordability.
Future energy needs
When we announced Zero30 nearly two years ago, we committed to developing a sophisticated, dynamic plan on how Saint John Energy might reach net zero across three key fronts: achieving an even cleaner energy supply, planning for increased electricity demand, and innovating with our customers.
Today, I'd like to share the significant progress we've made in forecasting and preparing for our community's future energy needs.
One of the most exciting aspects of Zero30 has been the creation of a digital representation of our electrical grid. Working with Deloitte and other global experts, we've built a virtual replica of Saint John Energy's entire distribution system, incorporating detailed data from our meters, infrastructure, and geographical information.
A digital twin
This digital twin allows us to simulate various scenarios of how electricity use might evolve over the coming decades. We've looked at everything from the rate of electric vehicle adoption to heat pump installations and solar panel uptake.
By running hundreds of simulations using advanced modelling techniques, we can identify potential challenges and opportunities decades in advance.
We've built a virtual replica of Saint John Energy's entire distribution system, incorporating detailed data from our meters, infrastructure, and geographical information.
The beauty of our approach is that we're not betting on just one vision of the future. Instead, we're mapping multiple scenarios – from rapid, widespread shifts to electric vehicles, heat pumps and appliances (what we call "high electrification") to more gradual transitions away from fossil fuels. This creates "bookends" of potential futures, giving us a range of possibilities to prepare for.
In our high electrification scenario, where most homes and businesses switch from fossil fuels to electric technologies, we anticipate Saint John Energy's load could double by 2050. That's a significant increase that would require thoughtful planning and strategic investments.
Rather than waiting to react to challenges as they arise, Zero30 enables us to anticipate and plan for them now.
Smarter alternatives
Traditionally, utilities have responded to increased demand by simply building more infrastructure – more poles, wires, and transformers.
But Zero30 is helping us explore smarter alternatives.
For instance, our modelling allows us to test the impact of energy efficiency measures and smart grid controls that optimize the entire system. These alternatives can help us meet growing demand while minimizing costs and environmental impact.
Zero30 is helping us explore smarter alternatives.
Our approach isn't just about predicting which transformers might become overloaded by 2030 or 2040. Zero30 is about developing a comprehensive strategy for our community's energy future that balances reliability, affordability, and sustainability.
A GPS for our energy future
Perhaps most importantly, what we're building isn't a static report destined to sit on a shelf.
We're working to ensure you continue to enjoy the most reliable and affordable electricity in Atlantic Canada, even as our energy landscape transforms dramatically.
We're working with experts from around the world, including teams from Deloitte, to develop solutions that adapt as circumstances change.
The models we're creating will be regularly updated with the latest data, allowing us to refine our forecasts and adjust our strategies accordingly. Think of it as a GPS for our energy future – constantly recalculating the best route as conditions evolve.
You might be wondering why all this forecasting and planning matters to you as a Saint John Energy customer. The answer is simple: we're working to ensure you continue to enjoy the most reliable and affordable electricity in Atlantic Canada, even as our energy landscape transforms dramatically.
A more sustainable Saint John
By anticipating challenges before they arise, we can keep our system reliable while making smart investments that minimize rate impacts. We're planning now so that when you decide to purchase an electric vehicle, install a heat pump, or add solar panels to your home, our grid will be ready to support you.
Our smart grid technology, which has already received national and international recognition, positions us well for this transition. But Zero30 is taking our preparation to the next level, ensuring we have both the infrastructure and the intelligence to serve you well into the future.
As we continue this journey toward a cleaner energy future, we'll keep you updated on our progress and findings. Together, we're building a more sustainable Saint John that remains a leader in reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible energy.
Stay connected with us at zero30.ca to learn more about how Saint John Energy is preparing for tomorrow's energy landscape today.
Andrew Ahearn is Director, Engineering and System Strategy at Saint John Energy.